FC Basel 1893 1-0 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. Jakob-Park plays host to FC Basel 1893 versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's home record at St. Jakob-Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at St. Jakob-Park this season.
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.50 for FC ST. Gallen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Basel 1893 lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 59% and FC ST. Gallen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 50% | FC ST. Gallen 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.10 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.768 / defence 0.855 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.822 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.271. FC Basel 1893's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 FC Basel 1893 games / 58 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 40% | Draw 31% | FC ST. Gallen 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | FC ST. Gallen 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 40% | FC ST. Gallen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 40% | Draw 31% | FC ST. Gallen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.10 / FC ST. Gallen 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.768 / def 0.855 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.822 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC ST. Gallen xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 0 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 40% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (2 meetings): FC Basel 1893 1W | Draws 0 | FC ST. Gallen 1W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (0.82x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.26
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
1.99
0.89
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.89 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 18D 22L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.40 PPG from 58 outings (22W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.40 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 10W 10D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 0.83 points per game from 29 outings (5W 9D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.74 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 18W 18D 22L in their last 58 games (1.24 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.38 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Basel 1893 see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 55%, FC ST. Gallen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Basel 1893) and 41% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 have failed to score in 34% of games; FC ST. Gallen in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FC Basel 1893's games and 59% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 41% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC ST. Gallen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC ST. Gallen 1-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.10 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.89 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.77 / defence 0.85 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 40% | Draw 31% | FC ST. Gallen 29%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 50%, FC ST. Gallen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.24 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.