Servette FC 3-1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Servette FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Servette FC host Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at Stade de Genève in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Servette FC stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC at Stade de Genève this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Servette FC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Servette FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Servette FC, 0 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Servette FC trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 61% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 44% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 2.13 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 1.147 / defence 0.904 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.945 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.302. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Servette FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Servette FC games / 21 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Servette FC 61% | Draw 20% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 19%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Servette FC (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Servette FC 70% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 61% | Draw 20% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Servette FC 2.13 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 1.147 / def 0.904 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.945 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Servette FC 3 - 1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 61% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Servette FC and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score (BTTS).
Will Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Record (1 meetings): Servette FC 0W | Draws 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0W.
What form are Servette FC and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in?
Servette FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (1.15) and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack versus Servette FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
61%
1.65
20%
4.91
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.24
1.11
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
2%
44.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Servette FC and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.11 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Servette FC's recent record stands at 11W 9D 3L from 23 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 13L across 23 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Servette FC by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Lausanne-Ouchy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Servette FC have managed 5W 5D 1L from 11 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's away record stands at 3W 1D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Servette FC are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are on 1.26 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Servette FC and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 11W 9D 3L in their last 23 games (1.83 PPG), while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away?
Servette FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Servette FC or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Servette FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Servette FC and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Servette FC's record when hosting Stade Lausanne-Ouchy specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Servette FC
1
Draws
1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
From 3 meetings on record, Servette FC have won 1, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2024, when Servette FC 1-2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Servette FC 73%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Servette FC and 64% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Servette FC play Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Servette FC's games and 54% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Servette FC vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Servette FC's matches and 64% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's.
Do Servette FC and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy tend to score early?
Servette FC have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 2.13 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.11 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Servette FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.90 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 57/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 61% | Draw 20% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 19%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 44%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.