Oddevold 1-0 Umeå FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Umeå FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 1 as Oddevold welcome Umeå FC to Rimnersvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 31 March 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oddevold — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oddevold have posted 2W 5D 3L at Rimnersvallen — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.55 xG and Umeå FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.955 / defence 1.085 | Umeå FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.137. Data: 30 Oddevold games / 0 Umeå FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Oddevold 48% | Draw 27% | Umeå FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Umeå FC 4.00. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Umeå FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Monday 31 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 48% | Draw 27% | Umeå FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Oddevold 1.55 / Umeå FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.955 / def 1.085 | Umeå FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Umeå FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Umeå FC kick off?
Oddevold vs Umeå FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 31 March 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Oddevold 1 - 0 Umeå FC.
Where is Oddevold vs Umeå FC being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Umeå FC part of?
Oddevold vs Umeå FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 48% chance of winning, Umeå FC a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Oddevold and Umeå FC will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Umeå FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Umeå FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and Umeå FC in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Oddevold home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Umeå FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Umeå FC's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.74
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.60
1.05
Umeå FC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
5%
18.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Umeå FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.05 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Oddevold
0
Draws
0
Umeå FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Umeå FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 2, Umeå FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Umeå FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Umeå FC 0-2 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Umeå FC?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Umeå FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out Umeå FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Umeå FC 1-0 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.55 xG and Umeå FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Umeå FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Umeå FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 48% | Draw 27% | Umeå FC 25%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.