Oddevold 1-0 Umeå FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Oddevold face Umeå FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Oddevold welcome Umeå FC to Rimnersvallen in Superettan (matchday 1). Kick-off is Monday 31 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Oddevold — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Oddevold have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.55 xG and Umeå FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.955 / defence 1.085 | Umeå FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.137. Data: built from Oddevold's last 30 games and Umeå FC's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Oddevold 48% | Draw 27% | Umeå FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.07 | Draw 3.74 | Umeå FC 4.01. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Oddevold 30 games, Umeå FC 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Umeå FC | Competition: Superettan, matchday 1 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Monday 31 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 48% | Draw 27% | Umeå FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Oddevold 1.55 / Umeå FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.955 / def 1.085 | Umeå FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Umeå FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oddevold vs Umeå FC FAQs
What time does Oddevold vs Umeå FC kick off?
Oddevold vs Umeå FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 31 March 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Oddevold 1 - 0 Umeå FC.
Where is Oddevold vs Umeå FC being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Umeå FC part of?
Oddevold vs Umeå FC is a Superettan fixture (matchday 1) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 48% chance of winning, Umeå FC a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Oddevold and Umeå FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Oddevold vs Umeå FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Umeå FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Umeå FC's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oddevold's last 30 games and Umeå FC's last 0, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.74
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.60
1.05
Umeå FC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
5%
18.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oddevold vs Umeå FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Umeå FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.05 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Umeå FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Oddevold (Home) vs Umeå FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oddevold
Pre-Season
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2025. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 31 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Oddevold
0
Draws
0
Umeå FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Oddevold vs Umeå FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Umeå FC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Oddevold have won 2, Umeå FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Umeå FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2025: Umeå FC 0-2 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Umeå FC?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Umeå FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out Umeå FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Umeå FC 1-0 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.55 xG and Umeå FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Umeå FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Umeå FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 48% | Draw 27% | Umeå FC 25%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.