Sirius 2-3 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sirius and Mjallby AIF meet at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Studenternas IP.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Sirius, 1.20 for Mjallby AIF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Sirius 1W, Mjallby AIF 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 44% versus Mjallby AIF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 49% | Mjallby AIF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.20 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.030 / defence 1.157 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.801 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.225. Data: 45 Sirius games / 45 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 36% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 33%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Mjallby AIF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Mjallby AIF 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 36% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Sirius 1.20 / Mjallby AIF 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.030 / def 1.157 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.801 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Sirius (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Mjallby AIF xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 July 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Sirius 2 - 3 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 36% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sirius and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Record (4 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 3W.
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.03) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.80x) against Sirius's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.28
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.33
1.14
Mjallby AIF xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sirius and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sirius and 1.14 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 13D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.38 PPG from 45 outings (16W 14D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Sirius against 1.38 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 8W 3D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.45 points per game from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.02 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 16W 14D 15L in their last 45 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.23 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Sirius or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sirius
2
Draws
7
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sirius 4-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 46% (Sirius) and 23% (Mjallby AIF) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Sirius and 23% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 46%; Sirius have failed to score in 27% of games; Mjallby AIF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sirius's recent matches and 23% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sirius's recent games and 23% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Sirius 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Sirius 2-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.20 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.14 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.80 / defence 0.83, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 36% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 33%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 49%, Mjallby AIF 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.16 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.