IFK Varnamo 1-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours BK Hacken (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Varnamo face BK Hacken.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BK Hacken make the trip to Finnvedsvallen to face IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Varnamo's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 2W 1D 7L at Finnvedsvallen — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BK Hacken (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. BK Hacken are 1.00 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, BK Hacken have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to IFK Varnamo's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with BK Hacken winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. BK Hacken have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BK Hacken — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Varnamo 53% and BK Hacken 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 49% | BK Hacken 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.98 xG and BK Hacken 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.792 / defence 1.086 | BK Hacken attack 1.195 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.307. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 IFK Varnamo games / 46 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 20% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 53%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | BK Hacken 1.89. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BK Hacken if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 60% | BK Hacken 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 20% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.98 / BK Hacken 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.792 / def 1.086 | BK Hacken attack 1.195 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.70
BK Hacken xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 20% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (1.20x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
20%
4.92
27%
3.68
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.68
1.70
BK Hacken xG
4.92
20%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
4%
26.84
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.70 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 11D 20L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 2.13 PPG from 45 outings (28W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 2.00 points per game from 22 outings (12W 8D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.38 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 76%.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 28W 12D 5L in their last 45 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.23 PPG; BK Hacken away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: BK Hacken have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won 1-5 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
5
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, BK Hacken have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 1-5 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 54%, BK Hacken 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (IFK Varnamo) and 54% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of IFK Varnamo's games and 68% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 54% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat BK Hacken 1-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.98 xG and BK Hacken 1.70 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BK Hacken landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against BK Hacken attack 1.20 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 20% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 53%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 49%, BK Hacken 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
BK Hacken's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with IFK Varnamo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.