Mjallby AIF 1-2 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Mjallby AIF, 1.20 for IFK Norrkoping — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus IFK Norrkoping 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 34% | IFK Norrkoping 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.20 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.835 / defence 0.877 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.139 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.292. Data: 44 Mjallby AIF games / 44 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 32% | IFK Norrkoping 36%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | IFK Norrkoping 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 40% | IFK Norrkoping 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 32% | IFK Norrkoping 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.20 / IFK Norrkoping 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.835 / def 0.877 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.139 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.29
IFK Norrkoping xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 2 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 32% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (4 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 3 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (1.14x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
32%
3.17
32%
3.10
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.49
1.29
IFK Norrkoping xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.29 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 16W 14D 14L from 44 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 17L across 44 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.20 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 7W 9D 6L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 6W 8D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.39 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 16W 14D 14L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 13W 14D 17L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.36 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 64%, IFK Norrkoping 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mjallby AIF) and 50% (IFK Norrkoping).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Mjallby AIF's games and 64% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 50% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out Mjallby AIF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Mjallby AIF 1-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.20 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.29 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.83 / defence 0.88 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.14 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 32% | IFK Norrkoping 36%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 34%, IFK Norrkoping 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.41 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.