IF Elfsborg 6-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 6W 3D 1L at Borås Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (IF Elfsborg) versus 1.70 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Elfsborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 48% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | AIK Stockholm 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.39 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.212 / defence 0.866 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.877 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.410. AIK Stockholm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 IF Elfsborg games / 38 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 67% | Draw 18% | AIK Stockholm 15%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | AIK Stockholm 6.67. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 50% | AIK Stockholm 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 67% | Draw 18% | AIK Stockholm 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 60% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.39 / AIK Stockholm 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.212 / def 0.866 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.877 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AIK Stockholm xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IF Elfsborg 6 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 67% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
Record (5 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.21x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
67%
1.50
18%
5.54
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.46
1.07
AIK Stockholm xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
9%
10.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
1%
70.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.07 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 33W 14D 13L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 23W 17D 20L from 60 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AIK Stockholm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.07 PPG from 30 outings (18W 8D 4L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 9W 7D 14L from 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.32 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.07 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.13 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, AIK Stockholm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 53% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of IF Elfsborg's games and 60% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 53% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 6-1 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat AIK Stockholm 6-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.39 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.07 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.88 / defence 1.29, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 67% | Draw 18% | AIK Stockholm 15%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.