Mjallby AIF 3-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Hammarby FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.50 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 3 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus Hammarby FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | Hammarby FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.53 xG and Hammarby FF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.026 / defence 0.877 | Hammarby FF attack 0.854 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.410. Data: 38 Mjallby AIF games / 38 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 26%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 3.85. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 50% | Hammarby FF 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.53 / Hammarby FF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.026 / def 0.877 | Hammarby FF attack 0.854 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Hammarby FF xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 48% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.90
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.58
1.06
Hammarby FF xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
17.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.06 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 15D 22L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 27W 19D 14L from 60 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.40 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 10W 9D 11L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.68 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.20 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Hammarby FF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 40% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 43%; Hammarby FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 33% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 40% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Hammarby FF 3-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.53 xG and Hammarby FF 1.06 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hammarby FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Hammarby FF attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 26%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, Hammarby FF 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.