AIK Stockholm 1-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 69%, yet in-form Sirius provide a compelling counter-argument — this AIK Stockholm vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sirius travel to Strawberry Arena to take on AIK Stockholm in Allsvenskan (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AIK Stockholm have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AIK Stockholm's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sirius stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 2.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of AIK Stockholm's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for AIK Stockholm, 0 for Sirius and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 31 Jul 2023, ended AIK Stockholm 1–0 Sirius — a AIK Stockholm win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 50% versus Sirius 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 47% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.12 xG and Sirius 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.424 / defence 0.708 | Sirius attack 0.782 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.398. AIK Stockholm carry an above-average attack rating of 1.424 — their 2.12 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sirius's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. AIK Stockholm have a tight defence (rating 0.708), which is pulling Sirius's projected output down. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 37 games and Sirius's last 37.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 69% | Draw 19% | Sirius 12%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.46 | Draw 5.25 | Sirius 8.06. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (69%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 69% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (AIK Stockholm's last 10 home games and Sirius's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 8 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 69% | Draw 19% | Sirius 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG AIK Stockholm 2.12 / Sirius 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.424 / def 0.708 | Sirius attack 0.782 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Sirius xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Sirius FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 3 Sirius.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 8) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 69% chance of winning, Sirius a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Sirius will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.42x the league average against Sirius's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 37 games and Sirius's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
69%
1.46
19%
5.25
12%
8.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.90
0.77
Sirius xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
8.06
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
12%
8.37
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
67.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Sirius Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.77 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 23W 17D 20L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 25L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.43 PPG, Sirius on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 14W 10D 6L from their last 30 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 8W 11D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs Sirius (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Sirius Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and Sirius in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Sirius away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.73 PPG; Sirius away: 1.17 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Sirius H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Sirius last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Sirius 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 40%, Sirius 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AIK Stockholm) and 53% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Sirius Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and Sirius matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 47% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and Sirius matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 53% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Sirius matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 67% of Sirius's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat AIK Stockholm 1-3 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.12 xG and Sirius 0.77 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sirius outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.42 / defence 0.71 against Sirius attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 69% | Draw 19% | Sirius 12%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.43 PPG, Sirius 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.