Hammarby FF 3-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 44%, yet in-form Sirius provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hammarby FF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hammarby FF welcome Sirius to Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 26 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 6D 1L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sirius — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sirius have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hammarby FF's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Hammarby FF have won 2, Sirius 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2023, ended Hammarby FF 2–2 Sirius — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 48% versus Sirius 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 55% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.55 xG and Sirius 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.119 / defence 0.977 | Sirius attack 0.995 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.323. Data: built from Hammarby FF's last 40 games and Sirius's last 40.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 25% | Sirius 32%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.29 | Draw 4.03 | Sirius 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and Sirius's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hammarby FF 90% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 11 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 25% | Sirius 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hammarby FF 1.55 / Sirius 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.119 / def 0.977 | Sirius attack 0.995 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sirius xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hammarby FF vs Sirius FAQs
What time does Hammarby FF vs Sirius kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 Sirius.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Sirius part of?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 11) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 44% chance of winning, Sirius a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and Sirius will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hammarby FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hammarby FF's last 40 games and Sirius's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.03
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.84
1.29
Sirius xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hammarby FF vs Sirius Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.29 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 19D 14L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.28 PPG from 60 outings (21W 14D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.67 PPG, Sirius on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hammarby FF's home form reads 17W 10D 3L across their last 30 home games, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
Hammarby FF (Home) vs Sirius (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Hammarby FF vs Sirius Form FAQs
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Sirius away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.03 PPG; Sirius away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won Sirius 0-3 Hammarby FF.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Hammarby FF vs Sirius H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hammarby FF have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Sirius last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Hammarby FF 2-0 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 63%, Sirius 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hammarby FF and 53% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hammarby FF vs Sirius Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hammarby FF and Sirius matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hammarby FF's games and 47% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hammarby FF and Sirius matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hammarby FF's matches and 53% of Sirius's.
Do Hammarby FF and Sirius matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 67% of Sirius's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Sirius 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.55 xG and Sirius 1.29 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Sirius attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 25% | Sirius 32%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 55%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG, Sirius 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.