AIK Stockholm 5-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees IFK Goteborg travel to Strawberry Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 May 2024, 18:10 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Strawberry Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strawberry Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AIK Stockholm at 1.70 PPG versus IFK Goteborg's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AIK Stockholm, 1 for IFK Goteborg and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 50% versus IFK Goteborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 47% | IFK Goteborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.85 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.352 / defence 0.894 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.995 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.326. AIK Stockholm carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 AIK Stockholm games / 40 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 53% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 24%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | IFK Goteborg 4.17. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | IFK Goteborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 53% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.85 / IFK Goteborg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.352 / def 0.894 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.995 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.18
IFK Goteborg xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
AIK Stockholm 5 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 53% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg?
Record (5 meetings): AIK Stockholm 2W | Draws 2 | IFK Goteborg 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.35) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.39
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.03
1.18
IFK Goteborg xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
4%
26.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.18 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 17D 20L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, IFK Goteborg sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (22W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.43 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 14W 10D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Goteborg have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.25 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IFK Goteborg away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.73 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
2
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 6, IFK Goteborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 40%, IFK Goteborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AIK Stockholm) and 53% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 47% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 53% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 5-2 hammering of IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IFK Goteborg 5-2 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.85 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.18 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. AIK Stockholm beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 53% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 24%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, IFK Goteborg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.43 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.