IFK Norrkoping 0-4 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees IFK Varnamo travel to PlatinumCars Arena to take on IFK Norrkoping. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Norrkoping have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
IFK Norrkoping at PlatinumCars Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — IFK Norrkoping are significantly better at PlatinumCars Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Varnamo away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. IFK Varnamo's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of IFK Norrkoping's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IFK Norrkoping, 1 for IFK Varnamo and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Norrkoping in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 58% versus IFK Varnamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 52% | IFK Varnamo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.29 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.046 / defence 1.280 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.098 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.298. IFK Varnamo's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 IFK Norrkoping games / 40 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 27% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 50%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | IFK Varnamo 2.00. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Norrkoping 40% | IFK Varnamo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 27% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.29 / IFK Varnamo 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.046 / def 1.280 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.098 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.82
IFK Varnamo xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
IFK Norrkoping 0 - 4 IFK Varnamo.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 27% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo?
Record (4 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 2W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
27%
3.70
23%
4.36
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
3.11
1.82
IFK Varnamo xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
4%
22.96
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.82 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Norrkoping's recent record stands at 20W 15D 25L from 60 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 24L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Norrkoping on 1.25 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Norrkoping have managed 12W 6D 12L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 12W 5D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.40 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.37 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Norrkoping have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when IFK Norrkoping won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Norrkoping's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
IFK Norrkoping
1
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo?
From 9 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 6, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when IFK Norrkoping 6-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 47%, IFK Varnamo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Norrkoping) and 63% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping have failed to score in 30% of games; IFK Varnamo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 57% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 63% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Varnamo run riot with a 0-4 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat IFK Norrkoping 0-4 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.29 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.82 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.3 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.05 / defence 1.28 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.10 / defence 0.77, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 27% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 50%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 52%, IFK Varnamo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.