Halmstad 1-3 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Halmstad face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF meet at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Halmstad have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Halmstad's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mjallby AIF's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Mjallby AIF away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Halmstad edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Halmstad 1–1 Mjallby AIF — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 52% versus Mjallby AIF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 58% | Mjallby AIF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.32 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.863 / defence 0.885 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.855 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.398. Data: built from Halmstad's last 37 games and Mjallby AIF's last 37.
Result probabilities: Halmstad 43% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 30%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 2.35 | Draw 3.63 | Mjallby AIF 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Halmstad as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Halmstad 40% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 8 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 43% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Halmstad 1.32 / Mjallby AIF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.863 / def 0.885 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.855 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Mjallby AIF xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF FAQs
What time does Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Halmstad 1 - 3 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 8) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 43% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Halmstad and Mjallby AIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.86x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.85x) against Halmstad's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Halmstad's last 37 games and Mjallby AIF's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.63
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.38
1.06
Mjallby AIF xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.06 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Halmstad have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 26W 14D 20L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Mjallby AIF's form line: 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Halmstad against 1.40 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Halmstad have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 7D 8L).
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 14W 6D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.08 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Halmstad (Home) vs Mjallby AIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Halmstad
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF Form FAQs
What form are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Halmstad's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.73 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 27 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mjallby AIF have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Halmstad
3
Draws
5
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Halmstad have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2026: Mjallby AIF 2-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 47%, Mjallby AIF 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Halmstad) and 27% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 43%; Halmstad have failed to score in 27% of games; Mjallby AIF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Halmstad and Mjallby AIF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Halmstad's recent matches and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Halmstad's recent games and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Mjallby AIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Halmstad's recent matches and 57% of Mjallby AIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Halmstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Halmstad 1-3 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.32 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.06 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 43% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 30%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 58%, Mjallby AIF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.53 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.