AIK Stockholm 6-2 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host IFK Norrkoping at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, AIK Stockholm stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AIK Stockholm's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
IFK Norrkoping — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for AIK Stockholm, 3 for IFK Norrkoping and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2023, ended AIK Stockholm 1–3 IFK Norrkoping — a IFK Norrkoping win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 50% versus IFK Norrkoping 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 47% | IFK Norrkoping 52%). Note also that IFK Norrkoping surrender HT leads in 48% of cases while AIK Stockholm recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.74 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.105 / defence 0.595 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.900 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.377. AIK Stockholm have a tight defence (rating 0.595), which is pulling IFK Norrkoping's projected output down. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 36 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 36.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 61% | Draw 23% | IFK Norrkoping 16%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.63 | Draw 4.31 | IFK Norrkoping 6.44. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though recent form (AIK Stockholm's last 10 home games and IFK Norrkoping's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | IFK Norrkoping 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 7 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 61% | Draw 23% | IFK Norrkoping 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG AIK Stockholm 1.74 / IFK Norrkoping 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.105 / def 0.595 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.900 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.74
IFK Norrkoping xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
AIK Stockholm 6 - 2 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 7) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 61% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.10) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 36 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.31
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.47
0.74
IFK Norrkoping xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
3%
36.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.74 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 17D 20L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, IFK Norrkoping sit at 1.25 PPG from 60 outings (20W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.43 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 14W 10D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Norrkoping have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs IFK Norrkoping (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.73 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.10 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 22 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won AIK Stockholm 6-2 IFK Norrkoping.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
0
Draws
5
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 5, IFK Norrkoping have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 September 2025: IFK Norrkoping 3-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 40%, IFK Norrkoping 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AIK Stockholm) and 60% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of AIK Stockholm's games and 70% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 60% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IFK Norrkoping matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 83% of IFK Norrkoping's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 6-2 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IFK Norrkoping 6-2 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.74 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.74 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. AIK Stockholm beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.10 / defence 0.59 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 61% | Draw 23% | IFK Norrkoping 16%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, IFK Norrkoping 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.43 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.