Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38%, yet in-form Incheon United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Incheon United to Gimcheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 1W 2D 7L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Incheon United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Incheon United's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Incheon United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Incheon United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 2 for Incheon United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Incheon United trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Incheon United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 xG and Incheon United 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.891 / defence 0.981 | Incheon United attack 1.052 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.194. Data: 10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 43 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 33%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Incheon United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Incheon United (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Incheon United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 / Incheon United 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.891 / def 0.981 | Incheon United attack 1.052 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Incheon United xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 2 Incheon United.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 38% chance of winning, Incheon United a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Record (3 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 0 | Incheon United 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Incheon United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.89x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.47
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.23
Incheon United xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.23 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 14D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.42 PPG from 40 outings (14W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Incheon United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 5W 5D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.20 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 14W 15D 11L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Incheon United away?
Incheon United's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Incheon United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Incheon United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Incheon United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
From 8 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Incheon United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%, Incheon United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 45% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 50% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 45% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 xG and Incheon United 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Incheon United attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 10/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 33%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Incheon United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Incheon United's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Incheon United arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.