Jeju United FC 1-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Daegu FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 May 2024 at 07:00 UK time.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Daegu FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Daegu FC are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Jeju United FC, 2 for Daegu FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Jeju United FC 0–1 Daegu FC — a Daegu FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 57% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 54% | Daegu FC 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeju United FC surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.42 xG and Daegu FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.869 / defence 1.194 | Daegu FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.208. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 43 games and Daegu FC's last 43.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.80 | Draw 3.69 | Daegu FC 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Jeju United FC 1.42 / Daegu FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.869 / def 1.194 | Daegu FC attack 1.008 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Daegu FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 36% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (1.01x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Jeju United FC's last 43 games and Daegu FC's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.69
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.45
Daegu FC xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.45 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 24W 21D 31L from 76 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 30D 23L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.30 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 10W 14D 14L from their last 38 home games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 8W 15D 15L across their last 38 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 games (1.22 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.16 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 23 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won Jeju United FC 0-4 Daegu FC on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeju United FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2025: Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 55%, Daegu FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Jeju United FC) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Daegu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeju United FC and Daegu FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jeju United FC's games and 63% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Daegu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 58% of Daegu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Daegu FC 1-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.42 xG and Daegu FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Daegu FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 37%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 54%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG, Daegu FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.