Slask Wroclaw 4-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Slask Wroclaw welcome Cracovia Krakow to Tarczyński Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tarczyński Arena, Slask Wroclaw have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slask Wroclaw at 1.30 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Cracovia Krakow 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 55% versus Cracovia Krakow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 45% | Cracovia Krakow 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.04 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.877 / defence 1.042 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.927 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.159. Cracovia Krakow's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Slask Wroclaw games / 65 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 31% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 36%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Cracovia Krakow 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Cracovia Krakow 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 31% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.04 / Cracovia Krakow 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.877 / def 1.042 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.927 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Cracovia Krakow xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw 4 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 31% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (5 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 2W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
31%
3.18
33%
3.04
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.16
1.12
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.12 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 24W 20D 21L from 65 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 19W 25D 21L across 65 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.42 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 13W 10D 9L from 32 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 7W 13D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.29 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 24W 20D 21L in their last 65 games (1.42 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 19W 25D 21L in their last 65 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.53 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
From 9 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 62%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Slask Wroclaw) and 31% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 31% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 31% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slask Wroclaw run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Cracovia Krakow 4-0 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.04 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.12 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.93 / defence 0.78, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 31% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 36%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 45%, Cracovia Krakow 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.42 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.