Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Stal Mielec travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Gornik Zabrze have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 2 for Stal Mielec and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Stal Mielec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 52% versus Stal Mielec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 49% | Stal Mielec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 2.00 xG and Stal Mielec 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.117 / defence 0.889 | Stal Mielec attack 0.903 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.148. Data: 65 Gornik Zabrze games / 65 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 61% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 15%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Stal Mielec 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Stal Mielec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 61% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Gornik Zabrze 2.00 / Stal Mielec 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.117 / def 0.889 | Stal Mielec attack 0.903 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Stal Mielec xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 61% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec?
Record (5 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 3W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.12x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
61%
1.64
24%
4.24
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.92
0.92
Stal Mielec xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
2%
47.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.92 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 28W 15D 22L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Stal Mielec's form line: 22W 18D 25L from 65 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.52 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.66 PPG from 32 outings (15W 8D 9L).
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 8W 6D 18L from 32 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.15 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
Stal Mielec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 28W 15D 22L in their last 65 games (1.52 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 22W 18D 25L in their last 65 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Stal Mielec away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.66 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 47%, Stal Mielec 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gornik Zabrze) and 44% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Stal Mielec in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 41% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 44% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 32, as Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 2.00 xG and Stal Mielec 0.92 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against Stal Mielec attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 61% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 15%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 49%, Stal Mielec 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.52 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.