Widzew Łódź 1-3 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Zaglebie Lubin travel to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Widzew Łódź) versus 1.50 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 1 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Zaglebie Lubin 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.899 / defence 0.967 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.177 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.127. Data: 65 Widzew Łódź games / 65 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 42% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 42% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.53 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.899 / def 0.967 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.177 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Zaglebie Lubin xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 3 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 42% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (3 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.90) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.58
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.81
1.28
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.28 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 23W 14D 28L from 65 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 25L across 65 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.28 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 14W 3D 15L from 32 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 13W 7D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 28L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 23W 17D 25L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.41 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Widzew Łódź won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
4
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 47%, Zaglebie Lubin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Widzew Łódź) and 56% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Widzew Łódź 1-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.53 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.18 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 42% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Zaglebie Lubin 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.28 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.