Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Kristiansund BK.

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Fixture Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Kristiansund BK to Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 15 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Kristiansund BK — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Kristiansund BK's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sarpsborg 08 FF at 1.60 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Kristiansund BK 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2024, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–3 Kristiansund BK — a Kristiansund BK win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Kristiansund BK trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% and Kristiansund BK 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% | Kristiansund BK 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.990 / defence 1.217 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.623 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.262. Kristiansund BK's attack rating of 0.623 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kristiansund BK's projected output up. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 51 games and Kristiansund BK's last 19.

Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 24%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.01 | Draw 3.83 | Kristiansund BK 4.14. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% (last 10 home games) | Kristiansund BK 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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