Kristiansund BK 2-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nordmøre stadion plays host to Kristiansund BK versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Kristiansund BK (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's home record at Nordmøre stadion: 4W 3D 2L from 9 Eliteserien appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 0.80 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Kristiansund BK register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant games, Haugesund in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Haugesund hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Haugesund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Haugesund have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 60% versus Haugesund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 45% | Haugesund 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.00 xG and Haugesund 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.086 / defence 1.111 | Haugesund attack 1.054 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.282. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Kristiansund BK games / 50 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 49% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 29%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 3.45. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 78% | Haugesund 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 49% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.00 / Haugesund 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.086 / def 1.111 | Haugesund attack 1.054 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Haugesund xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 49% chance of winning, Haugesund a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
Record (7 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 5W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.09x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (1.05x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 18/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
49%
2.03
22%
4.63
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.50
1.50
Haugesund xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
4%
25.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.50 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 6D 8L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (6W 3D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.05 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Kristiansund BK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Haugesund away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.67 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 3-0 on 20 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
5
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Haugesund have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Kristiansund BK 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Kristiansund BK, 67% for Haugesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Kristiansund BK) and 56% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Kristiansund BK's games and 67% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 56% of Haugesund's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Haugesund tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK and Haugesund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 21, as Kristiansund BK and Haugesund drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.00 xG and Haugesund 1.50 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against Haugesund attack 1.05 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 49% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 29%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 45%, Haugesund 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.20 PPG, Haugesund 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.