ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Tromso at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 4D 4L at Skagerak Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tromso are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Tromso 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–4 with Tromso winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Tromso trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 55% versus Tromso 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 53% | Tromso 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 0.83 xG and Tromso 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.818 / defence 1.217 | Tromso attack 0.754 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.274. Tromso's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 ODD Ballklubb games / 51 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 26% | Draw 30% | Tromso 44%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Tromso 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Tromso 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 26% | Draw 30% | Tromso 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG ODD Ballklubb 0.83 / Tromso 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.818 / def 1.217 | Tromso attack 0.754 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Tromso (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Tromso xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 0 Tromso.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 26% chance of winning, Tromso a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Tromso?
Record (7 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 3W | Draws 0 | Tromso 4W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Tromso (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.82) and Tromso's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
26%
3.83
30%
3.30
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.00
1.17
Tromso xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.17 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 51 games, going 14W 14D 23L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 1.69 PPG from 51 outings (26W 8D 17L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 8W 8D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.84 points per game from 25 outings (14W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 14W 14D 23L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Tromso have gone 26W 8D 17L in their last 51 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.28 PPG; Tromso away: 1.84 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Tromso in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Tromso won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
4
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Tromso?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Tromso have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Tromso.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Tromso see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 60%, Tromso 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (ODD Ballklubb) and 48% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Tromso in 40%; Tromso in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 44% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 48% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Tromso tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Tromso in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Tromso 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Tromso 1-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 0.83 xG and Tromso 1.17 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tromso landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.82 / defence 1.22 against Tromso attack 0.75 / defence 0.66, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 26% | Draw 30% | Tromso 44%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 53%, Tromso 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Tromso's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with ODD Ballklubb winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.