Ternana 0-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Ternana take on Brescia.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ternana and Brescia meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Ternana's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Ternana have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ternana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Brescia (all games): 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Brescia have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Brescia arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Brescia edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended Ternana 0–1 Brescia — a Brescia win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 50% versus Brescia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Brescia 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.00 xG and Brescia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.007 / defence 0.898 | Brescia attack 0.904 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.193. Data: built from Ternana's last 47 games and Brescia's last 44.

Result probabilities: Ternana 31% | Draw 39% | Brescia 30%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.18 | Draw 2.57 | Brescia 3.37. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ternana 50% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 50% (last 10 away games).

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