Cittadella 2-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cittadella at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cittadella vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato to face Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Cittadella (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ternana have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Cittadella. A 0.90 PPG lead over Ternana (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cittadella lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Cittadella winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 44% versus Ternana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 35% | Ternana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.19 xG and Ternana 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.871 / defence 1.022 | Ternana attack 0.803 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.167. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Cittadella games / 46 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 38% | Draw 37% | Ternana 26%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | Ternana 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cittadella as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cittadella if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 30% | Ternana 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 38% | Draw 37% | Ternana 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Cittadella 1.19 / Ternana 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.871 / def 1.022 | Ternana attack 0.803 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ternana xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Ternana kick off?
Cittadella vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Ternana?
Cittadella 2 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Cittadella vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Ternana part of?
Cittadella vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 38% chance of winning, Ternana a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cittadella and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Ternana?
Record (4 meetings): Cittadella 1W | Draws 1 | Ternana 2W.
What form are Cittadella and Ternana in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Ternana (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cittadella's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.80x) against Cittadella's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
38%
2.65
37%
2.73
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.15
0.96
Ternana xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.96 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cittadella's recent record stands at 12W 19D 15L from 46 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 22L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Cittadella against 1.04 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 6W 9D 7L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 3W 5D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ternana's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cittadella are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 0.96 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Ternana in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 12W 19D 15L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Ternana have gone 12W 12D 22L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Ternana away?
Cittadella's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.23 PPG; Ternana away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ternana in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cittadella
2
Draws
3
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Ternana have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Ternana 3-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 27%, Ternana 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cittadella) and 59% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 59% of games; Ternana in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Cittadella's recent matches and 54% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cittadella's recent games and 59% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Ternana tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Ternana in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cittadella and Ternana share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 9, as Cittadella and Ternana drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.19 xG and Ternana 0.96 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cittadella beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ternana outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Ternana attack 0.80 / defence 1.26, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 38% | Draw 37% | Ternana 26%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 35%, Ternana 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.20 PPG, Ternana 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.