Reggiana 1-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Venezia at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 9 matches, Reggiana stand at 1W 5D 3L — 0.89 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings (22%).
Reggiana at home: 0W 3D 1L from their last 4 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Venezia are 0.91 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.89), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 75% of Reggiana's games and 60% of Venezia's (from Reggiana's last 4 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Venezia in-play tendencies (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 0% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 56% versus Venezia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 56% | Venezia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.86 xG and Venezia 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.916 / defence 1.161 | Venezia attack 1.034 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.163. Data: built from Reggiana's last 9 games and Venezia's last 47.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 20% | Draw 34% | Venezia 46%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 5.03 | Draw 2.95 | Venezia 2.16. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Reggiana 75% (last 4 home games) | Venezia 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 10 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 20% | Draw 34% | Venezia 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Reggiana 0.86 / Venezia 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.916 / def 1.161 | Venezia attack 1.034 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Venezia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Venezia xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Venezia kick off?
Reggiana vs Venezia kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Venezia?
Reggiana 1 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Reggiana vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Venezia part of?
Reggiana vs Venezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 10) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 20% chance of winning, Venezia a 46% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Reggiana and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Reggiana vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 9 games and Venezia's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
20%
5.03
34%
2.95
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.26
1.40
Venezia xG
5.03
20%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
5%
20.30
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.6 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.40 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Reggiana have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 1W 5D 3L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reggiana.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 0.75 PPG from their last 4 home games (0W 3D 1L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 2W 2D 0L from their last 4 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.56 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Venezia
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Venezia in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 1W 5D 3L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Venezia have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 0.75 PPG; Venezia away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Venezia in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Reggiana's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Reggiana
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Venezia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Venezia 2-0 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Venezia's games tend to start slowly — only 0% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 75%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reggiana) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 50%; Venezia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Venezia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Reggiana's games and 50% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reggiana and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggiana's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Reggiana's recent matches and 0% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Venezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Venezia 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.86 xG and Venezia 1.40 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Venezia attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 20% | Draw 34% | Venezia 46%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Reggiana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 56%, Venezia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Reggiana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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