Udinese 0-0 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Atalanta (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Atalanta at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 4W 2D 4L at Bluenergy Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atalanta — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Atalanta, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Udinese.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Atalanta winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atalanta have won 3 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 59% versus Atalanta 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 41% | Atalanta 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.93 xG and Atalanta 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.982 / defence 1.143 | Atalanta attack 1.189 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.320. Atalanta's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Udinese games / 56 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 18% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 57%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Atalanta 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 50% | Atalanta 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 18% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Udinese 0.93 / Atalanta 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.982 / def 1.143 | Atalanta attack 1.189 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Atalanta xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Atalanta kick off?
Udinese vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Udinese 0 - 0 Atalanta.
Where is Udinese vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Atalanta part of?
Udinese vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 18% chance of winning, Atalanta a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
Record (7 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 4 | Atalanta 3W.
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Atalanta (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.98) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
18%
5.46
25%
4.02
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.72
1.79
Atalanta xG
5.46
18%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
3%
32.81
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Udinese and 1.79 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 13W 23D 20L from 56 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 34W 8D 14L across 56 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 5W 12D 10L from 27 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 13W 6D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.05 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 13W 23D 20L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 34W 8D 14L in their last 56 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.00 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Udinese or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Atalanta in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Atalanta runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
6
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Atalanta have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 63%, Atalanta 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Udinese) and 59% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Udinese's games and 52% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Udinese's recent games and 59% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Atalanta tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Udinese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Udinese and Atalanta drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.93 xG and Atalanta 1.79 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Udinese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Atalanta landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Atalanta attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 18% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 57%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 41%, Atalanta 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atalanta's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.