Udinese 0-0 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Udinese face Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Atalanta at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 11 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Udinese have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atalanta stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atalanta away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atalanta — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Atalanta have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Udinese.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Udinese 1–2 Atalanta — a Atalanta win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Atalanta have won 3 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 61%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 59% versus Atalanta 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 41% | Atalanta 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Udinese surrender their half-time lead 61% of the time, while Atalanta have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.93 xG and Atalanta 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.982 / defence 1.143 | Atalanta attack 1.189 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.320. Atalanta bring a tight defence (rating 0.731, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Udinese's projected output down. Data: built from Udinese's last 57 games and Atalanta's last 56.
Result probabilities: Udinese 18% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 57%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 5.46 | Draw 4.02 | Atalanta 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Udinese 50% (last 10 home games) | Atalanta 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, matchday 20 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 18% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Udinese 0.93 / Atalanta 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.982 / def 1.143 | Atalanta attack 1.189 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Atalanta xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta FAQs
What time does Udinese vs Atalanta kick off?
Udinese vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Udinese 0 - 0 Atalanta.
Where is Udinese vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Atalanta part of?
Udinese vs Atalanta is a Serie A fixture (matchday 20) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 18% chance of winning, Atalanta a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Atalanta will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Udinese vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.98) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Udinese's last 57 games and Atalanta's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
18%
5.46
25%
4.02
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.72
1.79
Atalanta xG
5.46
18%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
3%
32.81
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Udinese and 1.79 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 13W 23D 20L from 56 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 34W 8D 14L across 56 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 5W 12D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 13W 6D 8L across their last 27 away games, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.05 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
Udinese (Home) vs Atalanta (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Udinese
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta Form FAQs
What form are Udinese and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 13W 23D 20L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 34W 8D 14L in their last 56 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.00 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Udinese or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Atalanta in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won Udinese 2-6 Atalanta.
Udinese's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
6
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Atalanta?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Udinese have won 1, Atalanta have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Atalanta last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 64% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 63%, Atalanta 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Udinese) and 59% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Udinese vs Atalanta Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Udinese and Atalanta matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Udinese's games and 52% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Udinese and Atalanta matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Udinese's recent games and 59% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Atalanta matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Udinese's recent matches and 82% of Atalanta's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Udinese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Udinese and Atalanta drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 0.93 xG and Atalanta 1.79 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Udinese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Atalanta landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Atalanta attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 18% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 57%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 41%, Atalanta 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atalanta's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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