Bologna 3-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Salernitana encounter.

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Analysis

Salernitana make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form

Bologna (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Bologna's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Salernitana have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Salernitana's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 2.20 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Salernitana's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bologna edge it 2 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Bologna 2–1 Salernitana — a Bologna win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 57% versus Salernitana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Salernitana 58%). Note also that Salernitana surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 45% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 2.29 xG and Salernitana 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.260 / defence 0.660 | Salernitana attack 0.798 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.220. Bologna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.260 — their 2.29 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Salernitana's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.660), which is pulling Salernitana's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 67 games and Salernitana's last 67.

Result probabilities: Bologna 74% | Draw 17% | Salernitana 9%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.34 | Draw 5.89 | Salernitana 11.61. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (74%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 20% (last 10 home games) | Salernitana 50% (last 10 away games).

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