Lecce 0-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours AS Roma (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lecce face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AS Roma make the trip to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Lecce (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AS Roma away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lecce lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 52% versus AS Roma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 36% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.09 xG and AS Roma 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.824 / defence 1.292 | AS Roma attack 1.265 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.210. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Lecce games / 67 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 20% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 57%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | AS Roma 1.75. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 60% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 20% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Lecce 1.09 / AS Roma 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.824 / def 1.292 | AS Roma attack 1.265 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.98
AS Roma xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs AS Roma kick off?
Lecce vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs AS Roma?
Lecce 0 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Lecce vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs AS Roma part of?
Lecce vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 20% chance of winning, AS Roma a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lecce and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma?
Record (3 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Lecce and AS Roma in?
Lecce (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lecce's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.26x) against Lecce's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
20%
5.03
23%
4.39
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Lecce xG
Total xG
3.07
1.98
AS Roma xG
5.03
20%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
14%
7.23
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
3%
36.38
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Lecce and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Lecce and 1.98 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Lecce have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 14W 22D 31L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 33W 15D 19L from 67 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecce.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (8W 12D 13L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 9D 12L from 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lecce are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.57 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 22D 31L in their last 67 games (0.96 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 33W 15D 19L in their last 67 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.09 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Lecce or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, AS Roma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-1 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Lecce
2
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, AS Roma have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when AS Roma 1-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 61%, AS Roma 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lecce) and 54% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lecce's games and 64% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecce vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lecce's recent games and 54% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and AS Roma tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lecce's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and AS Roma finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.09 xG and AS Roma 1.98 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lecce fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AS Roma landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against AS Roma attack 1.26 / defence 0.98, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 20% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 57%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 36%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.