Empoli 0-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Bologna encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as Empoli welcome Bologna to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Empoli — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season.

Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Empoli have won 3, Bologna 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Bologna winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Empoli in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Bologna in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Bologna 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.97 xG and Bologna 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.684 / defence 1.069 | Bologna attack 1.086 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.221. Empoli's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Empoli games / 66 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Empoli 25% | Draw 29% | Bologna 46%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Bologna 2.17. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Empoli dominate the H2H record, yet Bologna are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Empoli 30% | Bologna 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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