Lamia 2-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamia at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamia face PAS Giannina.

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Full Analysis

Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus PAS Giannina in Super League 1 (matchday 8). Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 19:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Lamia have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Lamia's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

PAS Giannina's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, PAS Giannina have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, PAS Giannina edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Lamia 2–0 PAS Giannina — a Lamia win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 42% versus PAS Giannina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 40% | PAS Giannina 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.53 xG and PAS Giannina 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.865 / defence 0.963 | PAS Giannina attack 1.022 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.150. Data: built from Lamia's last 33 games and PAS Giannina's last 33.

Result probabilities: Lamia 43% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 24%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.33 | Draw 3.06 | PAS Giannina 4.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lamia 40% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 60% (last 10 away games).

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