Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 0.80 PPG lead over Panathinaikos (2.60 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Panathinaikos 30%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | Panathinaikos 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.75 xG and Panathinaikos 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.564 / defence 0.708 | Panathinaikos attack 1.553 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.075. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.564 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos's defence strength of 0.704 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.553 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 33 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 22%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Panathinaikos 4.55. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Panathinaikos 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.75 / Panathinaikos 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.564 / def 0.708 | Panathinaikos attack 1.553 / def 0.704 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Panathinaikos xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 47% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.56x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.55x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.32
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.93
1.18
Panathinaikos xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
4%
25.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.18 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 43 games, going 27W 11D 5L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 2.19 PPG from 43 outings (28W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.14 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.19 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 15W 4D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 2.29 points per game from 21 outings (15W 3D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.58 scored and 0.49 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against Panathinaikos's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games; Panathinaikos in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 27W 11D 5L in their last 43 games (2.14 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 28W 10D 5L in their last 43 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panathinaikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.33 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4
Draws
2
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 29% (Panathinaikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 29% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 29% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 29% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 8, as Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.75 xG and Panathinaikos 1.18 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.56 / defence 0.71 against Panathinaikos attack 1.55 / defence 0.70, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 22%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 54%, Panathinaikos 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.14 PPG, Panathinaikos 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.