Lamia 1-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamia at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Lamia welcome Panetolikos to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panetolikos stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Lamia have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Lamia have won 2, Panetolikos 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Lamia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (38 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (38 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 45% versus Panetolikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 40% | Panetolikos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.61 xG and Panetolikos 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.917 / defence 1.056 | Panetolikos attack 0.820 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.208. Data: 32 Lamia games / 31 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 47% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 21%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Panetolikos 4.76. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 50% | Panetolikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 47% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Lamia 1.61 / Panetolikos 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.917 / def 1.056 | Panetolikos attack 0.820 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Lamia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Panetolikos xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panetolikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panetolikos kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Lamia 1 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panetolikos part of?
Lamia vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 47% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lamia and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panetolikos?
Record (4 meetings): Lamia 2W | Draws 1 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are Lamia and Panetolikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamia's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
47%
2.13
32%
3.13
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.05
Panetolikos xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
4%
23.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lamia and 1.05 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 6W 17D 15L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panetolikos's form line: 7W 12D 19L from 38 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.92 PPG, Panetolikos on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 4W 5D 8L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.89 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 6W 17D 15L in their last 38 games (0.92 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 7W 12D 19L in their last 38 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panetolikos away?
Lamia's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.24 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Panetolikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Panetolikos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lamia's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lamia
1
Draws
4
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 5, Panetolikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panetolikos?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 47%, Panetolikos 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lamia) and 53% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 29% of games; Panetolikos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Lamia's games and 65% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lamia's recent games and 53% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Panetolikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Panetolikos 1-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.61 xG and Panetolikos 1.05 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 47% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 21%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 40%, Panetolikos 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Panetolikos's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.92 PPG, Panetolikos 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.