SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host Holstein Kiel at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Holstein Kiel have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.30 PPG, Holstein Kiel 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 2 for Holstein Kiel and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% and Holstein Kiel 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% | Holstein Kiel 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.108 / defence 0.776 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.102 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.357. Holstein Kiel's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 52 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 31%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Holstein Kiel 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Holstein Kiel 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 / Holstein Kiel 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.108 / def 0.776 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.102 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Holstein Kiel xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 41% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
Record (3 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 2W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.67
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Holstein Kiel xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.16 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 16D 17L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.56 PPG from 52 outings (23W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.40 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 14W 8D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.72 points per game from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L).
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.77 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 71%.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 19W 16D 17L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 23W 12D 17L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Holstein Kiel away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 2.00 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.72 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52%, Holstein Kiel 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 60% (Holstein Kiel). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Holstein Kiel in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 60% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 60% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out Holstein Kiel 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.10 / defence 0.77, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41% | Draw 27% | Holstein Kiel 31%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%, Holstein Kiel 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.