SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SC Paderborn 07's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Paderborn 07 1.90 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 0–5 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 63% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 74% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Paderborn 07 surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.55 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.038 / defence 0.944 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.865 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.429. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 51 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 51.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.19 | Draw 3.78 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.58. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights