FC St. Pauli 3-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 2.30 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 57% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 53% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.045 / defence 0.742 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.869 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.376. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 FC St. Pauli games / 53 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 48% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.17. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 48% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.39 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.045 / def 0.742 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.869 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.89
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC St. Pauli 3 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 48% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (3 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.04x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.87x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.60
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.27
0.89
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.89 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 26W 19D 8L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 20W 16D 17L from 53 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 1.96 PPG from 26 outings (13W 12D 1L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 5W 7D 14L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 26W 19D 8L in their last 53 games (1.83 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 20W 16D 17L in their last 53 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.96 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.85 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 5 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC St. Pauli) and 54% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC St. Pauli's games and 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.89 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.04 / defence 0.74 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.87 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 48% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 53%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.