1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MDCC-Arena plays host to 1. FC Magdeburg versus SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's home record at MDCC-Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at MDCC-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SV Wehen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Wehen's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SV Wehen are 0.60 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, SV Wehen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
SV Wehen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 68% and SV Wehen 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 53% | SV Wehen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.88 xG and SV Wehen 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.148 / defence 1.146 | SV Wehen attack 0.889 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.429. Data: 51 1. FC Magdeburg games / 17 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 47% | Draw 23% | SV Wehen 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | SV Wehen 3.33. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Wehen (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 90% | SV Wehen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 47% | Draw 23% | SV Wehen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.88 / SV Wehen 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.148 / def 1.146 | SV Wehen attack 0.889 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.46
SV Wehen xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 0 SV Wehen.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 47% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Wehen?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 0W | Draws 1 | SV Wehen 0W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Wehen in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. SV Wehen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against SV Wehen's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.89x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.26
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.33
1.46
SV Wehen xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.46 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 5D 8L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.47 for SV Wehen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Magdeburg's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.32 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SV Wehen away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.56 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, SV Wehen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Wehen?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 89% for 1. FC Magdeburg, 56% for SV Wehen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 44% for SV Wehen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SV Wehen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 56% of SV Wehen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 44% of SV Wehen's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Wehen tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Magdeburg edge out SV Wehen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SV Wehen 1-0 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.88 xG and SV Wehen 1.46 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SV Wehen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.15 / defence 1.15 against SV Wehen attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 47% | Draw 23% | SV Wehen 30%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 53%, SV Wehen 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Wehen's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 PPG, SV Wehen 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.