Crewe 1-0 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crewe face Notts County.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Notts County travel to Mornflake Stadium to take on Crewe in League Two (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crewe stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Crewe have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Notts County — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Notts County's away record over their last 8 away games: 3W 3D 2L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crewe at 2.00 PPG versus Notts County's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Crewe's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 8 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 88%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Notts County trading profile (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crewe 69% and Notts County 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Crewe 69% | Notts County 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 2.02 xG and Notts County 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.133 / defence 0.943 | Notts County attack 1.157 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.308. Data: built from Crewe's last 62 games and Notts County's last 16.
Result probabilities: Crewe 51% | Draw 22% | Notts County 27%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 1.95 | Draw 4.64 | Notts County 3.68. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crewe's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 8 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crewe 70% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 75% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, matchday 17 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 51% | Draw 22% | Notts County 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Crewe 2.02 / Notts County 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.133 / def 0.943 | Notts County attack 1.157 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Crewe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Notts County xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crewe vs Notts County FAQs
What time does Crewe vs Notts County kick off?
Crewe vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Notts County?
Crewe 1 - 0 Notts County.
Where is Crewe vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Notts County part of?
Crewe vs Notts County is a League Two fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 51% chance of winning, Notts County a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Crewe and Notts County will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crewe vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crewe's attack rating (1.13) and Notts County's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crewe's last 62 games and Notts County's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.64
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Crewe xG
Total xG
3.45
1.43
Notts County xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
4%
27.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crewe vs Notts County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Crewe and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Crewe and 1.43 for Notts County, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crewe's recent record stands at 8W 5D 3L from 16 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 4L across 16 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.81 PPG, Notts County on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 5W 2D 1L from their last 8 home games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across their last 8 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 2.06 scored and 1.75 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Crewe have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Notts County in 75%.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Notts County
Blended
Crewe (Home) vs Notts County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crewe
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Crewe vs Notts County Form FAQs
What form are Crewe and Notts County in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while Notts County have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Notts County away?
Crewe's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 2.12 PPG; Notts County away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crewe's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Crewe
1
Draws
1
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Crewe vs Notts County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Notts County?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Crewe have won 4, Notts County have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Crewe and Notts County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Notts County 1-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Notts County?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Crewe at 62%, Notts County at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Crewe) and 50% (Notts County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crewe vs Notts County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crewe and Notts County matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Crewe's games and 75% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crewe and Notts County matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Crewe's matches and 50% of Notts County's.
Do Crewe and Notts County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Crewe's recent matches and 75% of Notts County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Notts County 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Notts County 1-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 2.02 xG and Notts County 1.43 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crewe fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Notts County landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Notts County attack 1.16 / defence 1.18, drawn from 62/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 51% | Draw 22% | Notts County 27%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 69%, Notts County 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Notts County's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.81 PPG, Notts County 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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