Crawley Town 3-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Accrington ST.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Accrington ST's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Accrington ST's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.60 for Accrington ST. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 54% versus Accrington ST 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 52% | Accrington ST 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.63 xG and Accrington ST 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.053 / defence 1.100 | Accrington ST attack 1.015 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.308. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 61 games and Accrington ST's last 16.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 42% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 34%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.40 | Draw 4.20 | Accrington ST 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Accrington ST 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 17 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 42% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Crawley Town 1.63 / Accrington ST 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.053 / def 1.100 | Accrington ST attack 1.015 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Accrington ST xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Crawley Town 3 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Crawley Town vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 42% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Crawley Town and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.05x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (1.01x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 61 games and Accrington ST's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.20
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.09
1.46
Accrington ST xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.46 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 16D 28L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.13 PPG from 61 outings (19W 12D 30L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.13 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Crawley Town's home form reads 14W 7D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.63 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.02 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
Crawley Town (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Crawley Town vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 games (1.10 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 19W 12D 30L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.63 PPG; Accrington ST away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
2
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 2, Accrington ST have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Accrington ST 3-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Accrington ST?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 57%, Accrington ST 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Crawley Town) and 43% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 27% of games; Accrington ST in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Accrington ST matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 40% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crawley Town and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Crawley Town's recent games and 43% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 67% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Accrington ST 3-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.63 xG and Accrington ST 1.46 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Accrington ST attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 42% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 34%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 52%, Accrington ST 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.10 PPG, Accrington ST 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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