Notts County 4-2 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Notts County host Bradford at Meadow Lane in League Two, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 November 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Notts County stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County at Meadow Lane this season: 6W 0D 2L from 8 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Notts County are significantly better at Meadow Lane than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Bradford have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Bradford have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Notts County have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Notts County register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Bradford in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Notts County in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Bradford in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Notts County 71% and Bradford 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 65% | Bradford 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.76 xG and Bradford 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.175 / defence 1.325 | Bradford attack 0.914 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.282. Data: 17 Notts County games / 63 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 43% | Draw 23% | Bradford 34%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Bradford 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Notts County at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 75% | Bradford 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Nov 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 43% | Draw 23% | Bradford 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Notts County 1.76 / Bradford 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.175 / def 1.325 | Bradford attack 0.914 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Notts County (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Bradford xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Bradford kick off?
Notts County vs Bradford kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 November 2023 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Bradford?
Notts County 4 - 2 Bradford.
Where is Notts County vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Bradford part of?
Notts County vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 43% chance of winning, Bradford a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Notts County and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Notts County and Bradford in?
Notts County (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Bradford (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Notts County's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
43%
2.32
23%
4.38
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Notts County xG
Total xG
3.32
1.55
Bradford xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
6%
17.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Notts County and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Notts County and 1.55 for Bradford, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County's recent record stands at 9W 3D 5L from 17 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 7L across 17 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Notts County by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bradford heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 6W 0D 2L from 8 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Notts County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bradford's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Bradford in 65%.
Last 17 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Bradford in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 games (1.76 PPG), while Bradford have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Bradford away?
Notts County's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 2.25 PPG; Bradford away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2024, when Notts County won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Notts County's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Notts County
1
Draws
0
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Bradford?
From 4 meetings on record, Notts County have won 3, Bradford have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2025, when Bradford 1-1 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Bradford?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Notts County at 75%, Bradford at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Notts County and 62% for Bradford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Notts County's games and 62% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Notts County's matches and 62% of Bradford's.
Do Notts County and Bradford tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bradford in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Bradford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Bradford 4-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.76 xG and Bradford 1.55 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.18 / defence 1.32 against Bradford attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 43% | Draw 23% | Bradford 34%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 65%, Bradford 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Bradford's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.