Accrington ST 0-1 Colchester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Colchester travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Accrington ST — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Accrington ST have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Colchester have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Colchester away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Accrington ST are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Colchester in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 45% versus Colchester 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 50% | Colchester 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.87 xG and Colchester 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.987 / defence 1.044 | Colchester attack 0.925 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.335. Colchester's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Accrington ST's projected output up. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 15 games and Colchester's last 60.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 51% | Draw 23% | Colchester 26%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.96 | Draw 4.43 | Colchester 3.79. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Colchester's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 70% (last 10 home games) | Colchester 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, matchday 16 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 51% | Draw 23% | Colchester 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Accrington ST 1.87 / Colchester 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.987 / def 1.044 | Colchester attack 0.925 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Colchester xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Colchester FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Colchester kick off?
Accrington ST vs Colchester kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Colchester?
Accrington ST 0 - 1 Colchester.
Where is Accrington ST vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Colchester part of?
Accrington ST vs Colchester is a League Two fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 51% chance of winning, Colchester a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Accrington ST and Colchester will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Accrington ST vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (0.99) and Colchester's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 15 games and Colchester's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.43
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.16
1.29
Colchester xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
4%
24.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Colchester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.29 for Colchester, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Accrington ST come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 12D 29L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Colchester sit at 1.03 PPG from 60 outings (16W 14D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.15 PPG, Colchester on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Accrington ST's home form reads 11W 5D 14L across their last 30 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Colchester have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 4D 18L).
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.08 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Colchester
Blended
Accrington ST (Home) vs Colchester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Blended
Colchester
Blended
❓ Accrington ST vs Colchester Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Colchester in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 19W 12D 29L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Colchester have gone 16W 14D 30L in their last 60 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Colchester away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.27 PPG; Colchester away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Accrington ST's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
2
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Colchester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Colchester?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 2, Colchester have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Colchester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Accrington ST 2-2 Colchester.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 50%, Colchester 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Accrington ST) and 47% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 30% of games; Colchester in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Colchester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Colchester matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 47% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Colchester matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Accrington ST's recent games and 47% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Colchester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 77% of Colchester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Colchester defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester beat Accrington ST 0-1 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.87 xG and Colchester 1.29 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Accrington ST fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Colchester attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 15/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 51% | Draw 23% | Colchester 26%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Colchester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 50%, Colchester 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Colchester's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.15 PPG, Colchester 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Colchester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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