Charlton 0-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portsmouth at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Portsmouth make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 2W 3D 5L at The Valley — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Portsmouth (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Portsmouth are 1.80 PPG clear of Charlton in recent League One fixtures (2.20 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Charlton, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Portsmouth — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charlton and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 66% versus Portsmouth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 53% | Portsmouth 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.00 xG and Portsmouth 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.041 / defence 1.191 | Portsmouth attack 1.078 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.212. Portsmouth's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 79 Charlton games / 80 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 24% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 50%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Portsmouth 2.00. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Charlton dominate the H2H record, yet Portsmouth are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Portsmouth are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 70% | Portsmouth 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 24% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Charlton 1.00 / Portsmouth 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.041 / def 1.191 | Portsmouth attack 1.078 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Portsmouth xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Portsmouth kick off?
Charlton vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Charlton 0 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Charlton vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Portsmouth part of?
Charlton vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 24% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charlton and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Record (5 meetings): Charlton 3W | Draws 2 | Portsmouth 0W.
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in?
Charlton (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Portsmouth (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.04x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (1.08x) against Charlton's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 79/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
24%
4.12
25%
3.93
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.55
1.56
Portsmouth xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
5%
19.53
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Charlton and 1.56 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 79 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 23W 26D 30L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Portsmouth's form line: 38W 27D 14L from 79 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.36 PPG from 39 outings (14W 11D 14L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 18W 12D 9L from 39 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.47 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 26D 30L in their last 79 games (1.20 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 38W 27D 14L in their last 79 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.36 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Charlton or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Charlton
3
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Portsmouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 3, Portsmouth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Charlton 1-3 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Portsmouth?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 74%, Portsmouth 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charlton) and 41% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Portsmouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Charlton's games and 44% of Portsmouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Charlton's recent games and 41% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charlton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Portsmouth finished level at 0-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.00 xG and Portsmouth 1.56 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Portsmouth landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.04 / defence 1.19 against Portsmouth attack 1.08 / defence 0.72, drawn from 79/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 24% | Draw 25% | Portsmouth 50%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 53%, Portsmouth 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Portsmouth's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.