Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambridge United vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambridge United and Peterborough meet at Cledara Abbey Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambridge United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cambridge United's home record at Cledara Abbey Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Peterborough (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambridge United lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–5 with Peterborough winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cambridge United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 44% versus Peterborough 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 45% | Peterborough 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.21 xG and Peterborough 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.754 / defence 1.007 | Peterborough attack 1.174 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.214. Cambridge United's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 78 Cambridge United games / 78 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 32% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 42%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Peterborough 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 30% | Peterborough 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 32% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Cambridge United 1.21 / Peterborough 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.754 / def 1.007 | Peterborough attack 1.174 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Peterborough xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Peterborough kick off?
Cambridge United vs Peterborough kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Cambridge United 0 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Cambridge United vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Peterborough part of?
Cambridge United vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 32% chance of winning, Peterborough a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cambridge United and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Peterborough?
Record (3 meetings): Cambridge United 1W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Cambridge United and Peterborough in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Peterborough (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cambridge United's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.17x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 78/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
32%
3.16
26%
3.85
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.64
1.44
Peterborough xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.44 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambridge United come into this having played 78 games, going 23W 15D 40L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.67 PPG from 78 outings (39W 13D 26L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Peterborough carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cambridge United's home form reads 16W 8D 16L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.48 points per game from 40 outings (18W 5D 17L).
Attack vs Defence
Cambridge United are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.72 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 23W 15D 40L in their last 78 games (1.08 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 39W 13D 26L in their last 78 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Peterborough away?
Peterborough's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.40 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Peterborough in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Peterborough have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 5-0 on 11 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cambridge United
0
Draws
5
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 1, Peterborough have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 40%, Peterborough 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cambridge United) and 58% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 58% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cambridge United's recent games and 58% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Peterborough tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Cambridge United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Cambridge United 0-1 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.21 xG and Peterborough 1.44 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambridge United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Peterborough attack 1.17 / defence 1.20, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 32% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 42%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 45%, Peterborough 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (78 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Peterborough's trading profile (78 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.