Wigan 1-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Cheltenham travel to DW Stadium to take on Wigan. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Wigan have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wigan have posted 5W 1D 4L at DW Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DW Stadium.
Cheltenham — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wigan 1.70 PPG, Cheltenham 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Wigan have won 1, Cheltenham 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wigan in-play tendencies (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 57% versus Cheltenham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 43% | Cheltenham 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.13 xG and Cheltenham 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.918 / defence 0.968 | Cheltenham attack 0.730 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.214. Data: 33 Wigan games / 77 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 42% | Draw 31% | Cheltenham 28%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Cheltenham 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wigan are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 40% | Cheltenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 42% | Draw 31% | Cheltenham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Wigan 1.13 / Cheltenham 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.918 / def 0.968 | Cheltenham attack 0.730 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Wigan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cheltenham xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Cheltenham kick off?
Wigan vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 February 2024 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Cheltenham?
Wigan 1 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Wigan vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Cheltenham part of?
Wigan vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 42% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Wigan and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Cheltenham?
Record (3 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 2 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Wigan and Cheltenham in?
Wigan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wigan's attack at 0.92x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.27
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.98
0.86
Cheltenham xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Wigan and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Wigan and 0.86 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wigan come into this having played 77 games, going 24W 19D 34L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Cheltenham sit at 1.12 PPG from 77 outings (23W 17D 37L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wigan on 1.18 PPG, Cheltenham on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wigan's home form reads 14W 7D 17L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Cheltenham have taken 0.87 points per game from 38 outings (9W 6D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 0.94 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 77 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 24W 19D 34L in their last 77 games (1.18 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 23W 17D 37L in their last 77 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Cheltenham away?
Wigan's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.29 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Wigan's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wigan
3
Draws
0
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Wigan have won 1, Cheltenham have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2024, when Wigan 1-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Cheltenham?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 50%, Cheltenham 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Wigan) and 42% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 26% of games; Cheltenham in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wigan's recent matches and 32% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Wigan's recent games and 42% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Cheltenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan and Cheltenham finished level at 1-1 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.13 xG and Cheltenham 0.86 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Cheltenham attack 0.73 / defence 0.92, drawn from 33/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 42% | Draw 31% | Cheltenham 28%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 43%, Cheltenham 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cheltenham's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.18 PPG, Cheltenham 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.