Teplice 1-4 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Teplice face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Sparta Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 2). Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Teplice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Sparta Praha have posted 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.40 PPG clear of Teplice over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Sparta Praha, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Teplice 1–2 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sparta Praha have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 46% versus Sparta Praha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 40% | Sparta Praha 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.33 xG and Sparta Praha 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.980 / defence 0.957 | Sparta Praha attack 1.197 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.220. Data: built from Teplice's last 31 games and Sparta Praha's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Teplice 35% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.82 | Draw 3.83 | Sparta Praha 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Teplice 31 games, Sparta Praha 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 2 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 35% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Teplice 1.33 / Sparta Praha 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.980 / def 0.957 | Sparta Praha attack 1.197 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sparta Praha xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 27 July 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Teplice 1 - 4 Sparta Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Teplice vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 2) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 35% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Teplice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.20x) against Teplice's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 31 games and Sparta Praha's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.83
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.73
1.40
Sparta Praha xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Teplice and 1.40 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 11W 9D 15L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Sparta Praha's form line: 27W 6D 2L from 35 games, 2.49 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 17 home games (6W 7D 4L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 13W 2D 2L from their last 17 away games — 2.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.34 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 60%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Teplice (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 11W 9D 15L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 27W 6D 2L in their last 35 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.47 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Teplice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Teplice and Sparta Praha, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Teplice 0-3 Sparta Praha on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Teplice
4
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 35%, Sparta Praha 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Teplice) and 65% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 35%; Teplice have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Sparta Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Teplice's recent matches and 59% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Teplice's recent games and 65% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Teplice's recent matches and 76% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Teplice 1-4 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.33 xG and Sparta Praha 1.40 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Sparta Praha attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 35% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 38%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 40%, Sparta Praha 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.