Slavia Praha 4-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face České Budějovice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slavia Praha and České Budějovice meet at Fortuna Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 July 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slavia Praha have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
České Budějovice (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.10 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Slavia Praha have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with České Budějovice managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Slavia Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 47% versus České Budějovice 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 58% | České Budějovice 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.97 xG and České Budějovice 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.221 / defence 0.941 | České Budějovice attack 0.956 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.286. Data: 31 Slavia Praha games / 31 České Budějovice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 22% | České Budějovice 22%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | České Budějovice 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 30% | České Budějovice 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 22% | České Budějovice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Slavia Praha 1.97 / České Budějovice 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.221 / def 0.941 | České Budějovice attack 0.956 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.16
České Budějovice xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Slavia Praha 4 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice part of?
Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 56% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Slavia Praha and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and České Budějovice?
Record (6 meetings): Slavia Praha 4W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Slavia Praha and České Budějovice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.22) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.96x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.61
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.13
1.16
České Budějovice xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
3%
32.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.16 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 26W 8D 2L from 36 games, a 2.39 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 19L across 36 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 15W 2D 1L from 18 games — 2.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 6D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.17 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice in 61%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 26W 8D 2L in their last 36 games (2.39 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 9D 19L in their last 36 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or České Budějovice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.61 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-1 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
1
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 6, České Budějovice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when České Budějovice 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and České Budějovice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 44%, České Budějovice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Slavia Praha and 56% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; České Budějovice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Slavia Praha's games and 67% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Slavia Praha's matches and 56% of České Budějovice's.
Do Slavia Praha and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 4-0 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat České Budějovice 4-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.97 xG and České Budějovice 1.16 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against České Budějovice attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 22% | České Budějovice 22%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 58%, České Budějovice 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
České Budějovice's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.