Slovan Liberec 1-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion u Nisy, Slovan Liberec have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion u Nisy. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion u Nisy than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 3 for Sigma Olomouc and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 58% versus Sigma Olomouc 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 52% | Sigma Olomouc 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.44 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.108 / defence 0.956 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.086 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.250. Data: 31 Slovan Liberec games / 31 Sigma Olomouc games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 34%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 50% | Sigma Olomouc 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.44 / Sigma Olomouc 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.108 / def 0.956 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.086 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sigma Olomouc xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 40% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (6 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 3W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.09x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
40%
2.47
26%
3.91
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.74
1.30
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 11W 10D 12L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 11W 7D 15L from 33 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.21 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Slovan Liberec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.33 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 11W 10D 12L in their last 33 games (1.30 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 11W 7D 15L in their last 33 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.88 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 1-4 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 50%, Sigma Olomouc 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Slovan Liberec) and 56% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Slovan Liberec's games and 69% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 56% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Sigma Olomouc finished level at 1-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.44 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.30 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 40% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 34%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 52%, Sigma Olomouc 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.30 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.