Sparta Praha 1-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sparta Praha welcome Baník Ostrava to epet ARENA in Czech Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 2 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Baník Ostrava stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Baník Ostrava away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sparta Praha 1.90 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Sparta Praha's games and 60% of Baník Ostrava's (from Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Baník Ostrava, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2024, ended Sparta Praha 2–1 Baník Ostrava — a Sparta Praha win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sparta Praha and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 60% versus Baník Ostrava 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 64% | Baník Ostrava 51%). Note also that Baník Ostrava surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Sparta Praha recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.63 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.159 / defence 1.102 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.079 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.230. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 42 games and Baník Ostrava's last 42.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 40% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 33%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.49 | Draw 3.71 | Baník Ostrava 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Sparta Praha 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 80% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 40% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Sparta Praha 1.63 / Baník Ostrava 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.159 / def 1.102 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.079 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Baník Ostrava xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Sparta Praha 1 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 40% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.16x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 42 games and Baník Ostrava's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.71
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.09
1.46
Baník Ostrava xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.46 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sparta Praha come into this having played 47 games, going 35W 7D 5L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.49 PPG from 47 outings (20W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sparta Praha's home form reads 17W 5D 1L across their last 23 home games, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 23 away games (10W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.53 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 35W 7D 5L in their last 47 games (2.38 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 20W 10D 17L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.43 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Mar 2023, when Sparta Praha won Baník Ostrava 0-3 Sparta Praha.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 61%, Baník Ostrava 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sparta Praha and 56% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sparta Praha's games and 52% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sparta Praha's matches and 56% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Sparta Praha and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 61% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sparta Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Sparta Praha 1-3 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.63 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.46 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 40% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 33%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 64%, Baník Ostrava 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Baník Ostrava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.