Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mlada Boleslav face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mlada Boleslav at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Praha away from home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.60 for Sparta Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 3 for Sparta Praha and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2024, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–5 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Sparta Praha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Sparta Praha 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.07 xG and Sparta Praha 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.947 / defence 0.916 | Sparta Praha attack 1.247 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.155. Sparta Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.789, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Mlada Boleslav's projected output down. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.247, which lifts their away xG to 1.32. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 43 games and Sparta Praha's last 43.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 28% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 39%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 3.64 | Draw 3.03 | Sparta Praha 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 40% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 28% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.07 / Sparta Praha 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.947 / def 0.916 | Sparta Praha attack 1.247 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sparta Praha xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 28% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (0.95) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.25x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 43 games and Sparta Praha's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
28%
3.64
33%
3.03
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.39
1.32
Sparta Praha xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.61
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.32 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 13D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.33 PPG from 48 outings (35W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 2.30 points per game from their last 23 away games (17W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.21 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 60%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 35W 7D 6L in their last 48 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.52 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won Mlada Boleslav 0-5 Sparta Praha on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
6
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Sparta Praha have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 61%, Sparta Praha 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Mlada Boleslav and 65% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 30%; Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 61% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 65% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 83% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 15, as Mlada Boleslav and Sparta Praha drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.07 xG and Sparta Praha 1.32 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Sparta Praha attack 1.25 / defence 0.79, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 28% | Draw 33% | Sparta Praha 39%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Sparta Praha 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.